If you have not seen it yet, see the clip from BBC about the trader who spoke frankly about what he thought about the market. Some of the things he says is:
- The smart money, do not buy the European rescue plan. The stock market is finished. The Euro is finished.
- That he and most traders do not care about how the economy goes. He says that he goes to bed every night dreaming of a recession since they equal opportunities.
- A trader or any person can make money if he is prepared.
- This economic crises is like a cancer. It will just grow if not taken care of. Get prepared.
- Governments don’t rule the world, Goldman Sachs does, and Goldman Sachs does not care about the European rescue package.
- In less than 12 months the savings of million of people will vanish, and that is just the start.
I mostly agree with him, and think he has some good observations. But there are two main issues here that I want to point out. Firstly, from a contrarian view it is very bullish when mainstream television like BBC air such an ultra negative outlook like this.
Secondly, what is really interesting is that many newspapers today write about this interview. But instead of focusing on what the trader said, they focus on him as a person trying to discredit him. When people trying to hide their heads in the sand by discrediting sources instead of statements, then that should be seen as very negative from a contrarian view.
Market sentiment remains very negative at the moment, making it hard to bet on a downward market (S&P500 1163), more upside risk than downside risk at the moment. However, the long-term outlook is still very bearish as long as most people are denying the risk of a disaster.