Finance and Stuff

Thoughts on finance and other stuff by Johan Lindén

Tag: positive

The Truth Behind the Trader on BBC

If you have not seen it yet, see the clip from BBC about the trader who spoke frankly about what he thought about the market. Some of the things he says is:

  • The smart money, do not buy the European rescue plan. The stock market is finished. The Euro is finished.
  • That he and most traders do not care about how the economy goes. He says that he goes to bed every night dreaming of a recession since they equal opportunities.
  • A trader or any person can make money if he is prepared.
  • This economic crises is like a cancer. It will just grow if not taken care of. Get prepared.
  • Governments don’t rule the world, Goldman Sachs does, and Goldman Sachs does not care about the European rescue package.
  • In less than 12 months the savings of million of people will vanish, and that is just the start.

[youtube_video=http://youtu.be/aC19fEqR5bA&rel=0&w=570 rel="nofollow"]

 

I mostly agree with him, and think he has some good observations. But there are two main issues here that I want to point out. Firstly, from a contrarian view it is very bullish when mainstream television like BBC air such an ultra negative outlook like this.

Secondly, what is really interesting is that many newspapers today write about this interview. But instead of focusing on what the trader said, they focus on him as a person trying to discredit him. When people trying to hide their heads in the sand by discrediting sources instead of statements, then that should be seen as very negative from a contrarian view.

Market sentiment remains very negative at the moment, making it hard to bet on a downward market (S&P500 1163), more upside risk than downside risk at the moment. However, the long-term outlook is still very bearish as long as most people are denying the risk of a disaster.

Gold Sentiment

There are many ways to measure market sentiment for gold. One way to do it is by checking Google Trends to see how many have searched for the term “buy gold”. That way you get a very broad definition of the positive sentiment in gold

From the chart below we see that we just have had a top in sentiment in gold in the beginning of August. Last time before that was in October 2008. The price of gold took a deep three-week dive right after the October top before the strong trend continued.

What seems to be a bit stretched in the picture though, is that the news references just made a huge spike in august. More notable than the spike in October 2008. This spike, however, totally died out for the last days which could make gold bulls relax a bit.

I am not very found of doing quantitative research with so few observations (the peeks), but this is one of many tools about how to look at quantitative-, technical-, or sentiment analysis.

Enjoy!

gold positive sentiment trend

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Platinum and Silver vs. Gold

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