Finance and Stuff

Thoughts on finance and other stuff by Johan Lindén

Tag: FED

Free Markets are the Usual Suspects in Economic Turmoil

In dire times people are looking for scape goats. One of the most common scape goats is the free market. So is the free market really the problem? Let us look at what countries do in these troubled times.

  • First, they blame other countries for unrighteously compete with their domestic industries, setting up tariffs for foreign trade, thus engaging in trade wars, instead of letting competition rule.
  • Second, they increase regulations on businesses, blaming trading robots, short-sellers and other participants, and trying to interfere with these tools of the free market.
  • Thirdly, the state out-crowds sound private companies by engaging in their own businesses with the unlimited resources of the public. This is just one of many things the state do to ruin private businesses. Out-crowding is also done by manipulating the interest rate so it either becomes too high or too low, and thus ruining the private businesses’ ways of doing business at market rates.

So there you have some of the reasons why bad gets worse. With all these things happening at once in already fragile economies, there is no wonder that the economy usually hits a depression or crash before things get better.

Also note that all these signs are signs of socialism, taking us further away from the principles of free markets. A free market is a market without rules governed by the state, but instead by rules made by the market’s own participants.

Bernanke Speaking at Jackson Hole

FED director Mr Bernanke is now starting his speech in the Jackson Hole FED-bank conference.

bernanke jackson hole stock market

The market participants are now waiting for news about the economy. Last year a big rally started in the stock market that lasted until this summer.

This time people do not seem that optimistic about the things Bernanke has left to offer. A Quantitative Easing number 3 is what many hopes for to help inject money into the markets. But even if that comes that is no guarantee for a raising stock market.

The positive side, I think, is that so many are negative now and not many believe in a strong stock market. That is the only, but very important, tell that we might enjoy some strength in the market.

But beware of volatility. Always take smaller trade sizes during times of high volatility. More about trade sizing in later posts.

S&P 500 is at this time down 1,3% to 1144.


No specific information about quantitative easing was given as most had expected.  But Bernanke said that the U.S. Federal Reserve will do what is necessary to support the economic recovery. — Suprise suprise!

The recovery in the U.S. economy remains modest. The recovery is slower than the Fed had hoped for, but the Fed continues to expect better growth in the second half of 2011. — I think you should change the world “expect” for “hope for”. What they or any expert expect is rarely what happens.

While noted a significant growth in the global economy and America’s banking sector is generally in much better shape now, says Bernanke, and I believe him, but it is not now I am worried about. It is tomorrow or next year. Warren Buffet also seems to believe in the American banking system. Google Buffet + BAC for more info about his latest investment.

The Federal Reserve has a number of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. — They might have the holy grail but they have not used it yet and do not want to tell us about it.

Their next meeting is in one month.

S&P 500 is at this time down 0,7% to 1152.

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